Saturday, October 14, 2017

The economics of the N.F.L. boycott


The revenue sources of the National Football League

These articles show where the NFL receives their income.  They are arranged in chronological order, oldest first.

Bloomberg, July 20, 2015 "NFL Teams Split $7.3 Billion in Revenue, Packers Numbers Reveal"

Christian News Service, September 16, 2015 "Op-Ed: NFL teams score $7 billion in taxpayer subsidies on stadiums"

Forbes, March 1, 2017 "NFL TV Ad Revenue Hits Record $3.5 Billion Despite Drop In Ratings"

Forbes, March 6, 2017 "NFL will reach $14 billion in 2017 revenue"

Bloomberg, July 12, 2017 "NFL Teams Split Record $7.8 Billion in 2016, Up 10 Percent"

The NFL Player's Association asked a consulting firm in Chicago to prepare a report on the income of NFL owners.  Link to the undated report in PDF format.  The two authors of the study are both professors at the University of Chicago.  Their biographies are the last two pages of the report.

Note: The Green Bay Packers are a publicly-owned team.  These words are the description of their stock on Google's specialized website for stock investors.

On the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, the Green Bay Packers battle for pride in the National Football League.  The not-for-profit corporation owns and operates the storied franchise, which was founded in 1919 by Earl "Curly" Lambeau and joined the NFL in 1921.  Home to such icons as Bart Starr, Ray Nitschke, and legendary coach Vince Lombardi, Green Bay boasts a record 13 league titles including four Super Bowl victories.  The team is also the only community-owned franchise in American professional sports with more than 250,000 shareholders.  The shares do not increase in value nor pay dividends, and can only be sold back to the team.


Sponsorship of teams, players, and the league

These are the first four paragraphs of a May 20, 2016 Reuters story that was published on the website of Fortune Magazine.  The links in these paragraphs were in the article.
Adidas wants to sign dozens of deals with U.S. sports stars in coming years, hoping that will provide a more lasting boost to sales than the current fashion fad for its retro sneakers, its North America head told Reuters.

Since falling into third place in the United States behind Nike (NKE, +0.75%) and Under Armour , the German firm has regained some ground in recent months after raising marketing spending in the world’s top sportswear market.

Mark King has put a big focus on signing top athletes in sports like American football, basketball and baseball since he took over as president of the region for Adidas in 2014, after more than a decade running the company’s golf business.

He said Adidas (ADDYY, -0.63%) wants to sponsor 250 National Football League (NFL) players by 2020, up from 95 now, plus 100 National Basketball Association players (NBA), up from about 70 now.
As I recently told a friend on Twitter, it looks like Adidas didn't calculate what might happen if an N.F.L. player refused to stand for the National Anthem and if the N.F.L. Commissioner didn't punish him.

Rules are meaningless if the N.F.L. referees won't penalize players who violate the rules.  Rules are also meaningless if team owners and the N.F.L. Commissioner won't fine any player who violate the rules.

These are the first five paragraphs of a September 12, 2016 Denver Post story.
Brandon Marshall says he has no regrets.  He doesn’t regret kneeling for the national anthem ahead of the Broncos’ season opener against the Panthers on Thursday.  He doesn’t regret his peaceful protest of racial inequity and police brutality.  And he doesn’t regret it all, even as the backlash and hatred pile on.

Marshall, a teammate of Colin Kaepernick’s at the University of Nevada, said he had made the calculated decision to join the 49ers quarterback standing — or kneeling — for his beliefs, but expected pushback.

Friday, Marshall lost an endorsement  with Air Academy Federal Credit Union.  On Monday, Marshall lost another in CenturyLink, a company whose name is painted on the top of the Seattle Seahawks’ stadium.  (On Sunday, all 53 Seahawks players stood together for the anthem, with their arms linked as a show of unity.)

“We completely respect Brandon Marshall’s personal decision and right to take an action to support something in which he strongly believes,” CenturyLink said in a statement. “America is anchored in the right of individuals to express their beliefs.  While we acknowledge Brandon’s right, we also believe that whatever issues we face, we also occasionally must stand together to show our allegiance to our common bond as a nation.  In our view, the national anthem is one of those moments.  For this reason, while we wish Brandon the best this season, we are politely terminating our agreement with him.”

As Marshall and his teammates practiced at the Broncos’ Dove Valley facility Monday morning, a man pulled up to the team’s headquarters and set ablaze an orange T-shirt with Marshall’s name written on it in ink.
These two sentences are in the fourth paragraph of the previous story.

"While we acknowledge Brandon’s right, we also believe that whatever issues we face, we also occasionally must stand together to show our allegiance to our common bond as a nation.  In our view, the national anthem is one of those moments."


This is the complete text of a September 23, 2017 Forbes article.  All of the links were included in their article.
During the past month the overall stock market is up more than 2% but shares of companies that broadcast NFL games--Comcast, Walt Disney, Fox, CBS--are all down between 1% to 8%.

The NFL is now a hotbed of protests--a carry over from last year that began when San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick began protesting during the National Anthem, to protests this year by those who feel Kaepernick, who is without a team, is being unfairly treated by by the league, to a stronger push by some players for an increase in NFL social activism.

Towards the end of last season some felt the NFL's ratings dip would be temporary and therefore would not ultimately hurt the networks by forcing them to reimburse advertisers. Instead, the opposite has happened.

Ratings for the the NFL have been worse this season and attendance for some games has also been disappointing.  The networks will pay over $5 billion this season to televise the NFL and were already facing unflattering margins on advertising profits.  An article in The Hollywood Reporter reckons the drop in NFL ratings could trim the broadcaster's earnings by $200 million.  Disney's ESPN, meanwhile, also continues to get hammered by cord-cutting.

It's just two weeks into the 2017 NFL season.  But the trend is not good for the league and its networks.  No one seems happy.
This is the last paragraph.

"It's just two weeks into the 2017 NFL season.  But the trend is not good for the league and its networks.  No one seems happy."


These are the first five paragraphs of an October 5, 2017 article on the N.J. com website.  The letters "TWP" are an abbreviation for "township".  The link in the first paragraph was in their article.
RARITAN TWP. -- In response to the ongoing controversy surrounding NFL players kneeling during the national anthem, the owner of Flemington Car and Truck Country has pulled the dealership's ads from broadcasts of games for the remainder of the 2017 season.

"The National Football League and its owners have shown their fans and marketing partners that they do not have a comprehensive policy to ensure that players stand and show respect for America and our flag during the playing of the national anthem," Steve Kalafer said in a statement. "We have cancelled all of our NFL advertising on the Optimum and Infinity (cable) networks."

Kalafer is also part of the Somerset Patriots' ownership group, an independent professional baseball team based in Somerset County.

"As the NFL parses the important nationwide issues of 'social justice' and 'freedom of speech,' it is clear that a firm direction by them is not forthcoming," Kalafer said in the statement.

Advertising during the 2018 season will be considered at a later date, he said. Representatives of Optimum and Xfinity could not be reached for comment as of Monday night.

These are the first three paragraphs of an October 27, 2017 E.S.P.N. article.
NOBODY KNEW WHERE to sit. Side by side or across from one another?

It was the final question raised by a group of 11 NFL team owners as they mingled inside the sixth-floor conference room at the league's Park Avenue headquarters in New York City, minutes before they were to meet with a group of 12 players, one former player and three union leaders on the morning of Tuesday, Oct. 17.  The day already had been stressful, and the meeting hadn't even started.  League executives had spent that morning as they had the previous four weeks: grappling with a series of events the league and owners could not control, unleashed by President Donald Trump's harsh criticism of the decision by a handful of players to kneel during the national anthem.

Morale was bad inside the league office, and the pressure was not letting up.  There was the looming notion that sponsors would leave the NFL -- not just because of the protests but because of an array of challenges confronting the league, including the continuing decline in TV ratings.  Nearly all of the league's longtime sponsors, from Papa John's to USAA, were rattled, and fissures within the league offices and teams, to say nothing of the players, were starting to expand.
This is the last sentence in the third paragraph.

"Nearly all of the league's longtime sponsors, from Papa John's to USAA, were rattled, and fissures within the league offices and teams, to say nothing of the players, were starting to expand."


These are the first three paragraphs of a November 1, 2017 E.S.P.N. article.
Executives from Papa John's, the official pizza company of the NFL, expressed disappointment on a conference call Wednesday about the league's ongoing player protests during the national anthem.

"The NFL has hurt us," company founder and CEO John Schnatter said. "We are disappointed the NFL and its leadership did not resolve this."

Executives said the company has pulled much of its NFL television advertising and that the NFL has responded by giving the company additional future spots. Later in the day, a spokesman clarified that the spots themselves weren't being pulled, just the NFL shield or "official sponsor" designation on those spots.

When I see other similar articles or news stories that are relevant to this page, I will add them.  I am also looking for articles or news stories that show the effect of the boycott on individual teams and on the league.  As of this date, October 14, 2017, I consider it likely that at least one team will require financial assistance in order to pay for their expenses, which include player salaries.

These are the first four paragraphs of a November 6, 2016 AdWeek article.  The link in the third paragraph was in their article.
While advertisers are sticking by the NFL games this season, they have made it clear to at least one network that they might pull out if coverage of national anthem protests continues.

Linda Yaccarino, chairman of advertising sales and client partnerships for NBCUniversal, said that some advertisers are unhappy about the controversy over protests, which has “impacted” NFL ratings this year.  She spoke Friday afternoon in New York during a fireside chat, moderated by Adweek, between her and Oath CEO Tim Armstrong that was part of the Verizon Media Tech Program with digital media agency R/GA.

During the conversation with Armstrong, Yaccarino was asked about Papa John’s CEO John Schnatter, who blamed his company’s disappointing quarterly earnings on the NFL’s failure to curtail national anthem protests, as well as the response from CBS Corp. CEO and chairman Leslie Moonves, who noted on his own earnings call that there was no hesitation on the part of any of his network’s NFL advertisers.  “I don’t know of one sponsor that has pulled out of any spot that they had,” said Moonves.  “I don’t think it’s affecting advertising or their desire one iota.”

Yaccarino echoed Moonves’ comments, and said that none of NBCUniversal’s NFL advertisers have pulled out of NBC’s Sunday Night Football or Thursday Night Football games.  However, a “list of advertisers have made themselves very clear: if you continue covering the political coverage of the issue, we will not be part of the NFL,” she said.  “Because think about it: they have half the country that is cheering about that, and they have half the country that is emailing them, saying, don’t do that.  So that’s a real thing.”
This is the second sentence of the fourth paragraph.

However, a “list of advertisers have made themselves very clear: if you continue covering the political coverage of the issue, we will not be part of the NFL,” she said.

The person who said this is Linda Yaccarino, chairman of advertising sales and client partnerships for NBCUniversal.


The economic effect of the boycott over time

The news stories in this section are arranged in chronological order, oldest first.  The economic effects in the following stories can be measured in a few different ways, such as:
  • reduced attendance at the stadiums
  • the reduced television and radio audience for games
  • lower sales of N.F.L.-licensed merchandise
  • the reluctance or refusal of fans to wear N.F.L.-licensed merchandise
All of these have some effect on the actual amount of income that is received by individual teams and the league.


The 2016 football season

These are the first three paragraphs of a Forbes, February 29, 2016 article.  The links in these paragraphs were in the article.
NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell earned $34.1 million in 2014, and he was worth every single penny.  Thanks to Goodell's masterful negotiation of lucrative television rights deals as well as the enhancement of several new league income streams, the NFL's total revenues are projected to surpass $13.3 billion this year, up more than 50% from 2010.

The projections are extrapolated from the newly revealed player revenue share numbers, which are estimated at around $200 million in total benefits for the 2016-17 season, of which $155 million will be directly allocated under the salary cap.  These numbers, revealed by NFLPA executive director DeMaurice Smith, mean that the approximately 1800 players in the league will share some $6.4 billion this upcoming season, which based on the collective bargaining agreement is a 47-48% share of total league revenues.

The $13+ billion revenue figure is even more notable because it is halfway towards Goodell's stated goal of $25 billion, which he claims the league will reach by 2027.  When Goodell made that announcement in 2010, revenues were only $8.5 billion, meaning the league has brought in an estimated $750 million annually over the last six years... keeping them right on track for the $25 billion mark.
Please note that in the first paragraph of the previous article, the Commissioner's 2014 income is compared to his 2010 income, not his 2013 income, which would have been a straightforward one-year comparison.

Please also note that this early 2016 article was written long before the first N.F.L. player began protesting the National Anthem, as proven by the next article.


These are the first two paragraphs of an August 27, 2016 article on the N.F.L. website.  The links in these paragraphs were in the article.
SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick has willingly immersed himself into controversy by refusing to stand for the playing of the national anthem in protest of what he deems are wrongdoings against African Americans and minorities in the United States.

His latest refusal to stand for the anthem -- he has done this in at least one other preseason game -- came before the 49ers' preseason loss to Green Bay at Levi's Stadium on Friday night.
Mr. Kaepernick's protest began during games that were played during August 2016, usually referred to as "pre-season games" because the results of those games don't affect the names of the teams that are in the post-season playoffs.  The graphic on the right shows an easy method of recording the playoff results.

United Press International published a similar story on August 28, 2016.  This story mentions Colin's poor performance on the field, which is a legitimate reason for a coach to take a player out of a game.

This video was uploaded on September 1, 2016 by Mark Dice, a media analyst.

The title of this video is "Colin Kaepernick Booed For Refusing to Stand During National Anthem on Military Appreciation Night".

September 11, 2016 was the 15th anniversary of the attacks in New York City, Washington D.C., and the attack that was prevented by the passengers who were aboard United Airlines Flight 93.


These are the first three paragraphs of an undated Bleacher Report article titled How NFL, Players Observed National Anthem on 15th Anniversary of 9/11 Attacks.  The links in these paragraphs were in the article.  The following Associated Press photo was included in the article and positioned just below the headline.

With fervor over national anthem demonstrations at an all-time high, the focus on "The Star-Spangled Banner" was never greater than Sunday, which marked the 15th anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks.

There were demonstrations planned across the NFL for Week 1, some in support of those who lost their lives and others in protest of racial inequality.

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick and teammate Eric Reid were off the marquee, with their opener against the Los Angeles Rams scheduled for Monday night. But the Seattle Seahawks made headlines before their game against the Miami Dolphins by announcing their plan to lock arms as a sign of unity.
N.F.L. fans can be very patriotic, but most of the N.F.L. players, their player association, and the N.F.L. Commissioner are all ignoring this fact.


These are the first six paragraphs of a September 19, 2016 Sporting News story.  The links in these paragraphs were in the article.
ESPN host Jemele Hill is back on the air after calling President Trump a "white supremacist" who has surrounded himself with "other white supremicists" — remarks that earned her a reprimand, but not a suspension, from the network.

The Twitter-taunting and subsequent fallout comes as the sports network's ratings have taken a significant hit over the last year, starting with players' social justice protests at pre-game festivities.

Both the TV networks and the NFL are paying the penalty.

As of July 2017, ESPN's ratings already dropped 9 percent compared to the same time period last year. Add that to an already bruising 2016 — in November 2016 alone, more than 600,000 subscribers dropped the network.

Viewership for the entire NFL is down 14 percent this year, according to Pivotal Research. It represents an eight-year low. Last year, ratings fell 9 percent.

Advertising spending is also down. The NFL is experiencing the worst advanced ad sales in a decade. Not since the recession started in 2008 have revenues been this dismal.

This is the third paragraph of the February 29, 2016 Forbes Magazine article that I quoted and linked earlier.
The $13+ billion revenue figure is even more notable because it is halfway towards Goodell's stated goal of $25 billion, which he claims the league will reach by 2027.  When Goodell made that announcement in 2010, revenues were only $8.5 billion, meaning the league has brought in an estimated $750 million annually over the last six years... keeping them right on track for the $25 billion mark.
The N.F.L. Commissioner's remark was made years before Mr. Kaepernick threw a monkey wrench into the relationship between the N.F.L. and the fans.


These are the first five paragraphs of an October 5, 2016 Sporting News story.  The links in these paragraphs were in the article.
It's the Kaepernick Effect, stupid.

The alarming fall in NFL TV ratings this season is partly because of fan anger over on-field protests by Colin Kaepernick and other players of the American flag/national anthem, according to pollster Rasmussen Reports.

Nearly one-third (32 percent) of adults say they're less likely to watch NFL game telecasts because of the Kaepernick-led player protests against racial injustice, according to Rasmussen's telephone/online survey of 1,000 American adults conducted Oct. 2-3.

Only 13 percent said they were more likely to watch an NFL game because of continuing protests by Kaepernick and supporters such as Antonio Cromartie of the Colts (who was cut only two days after raising a fist during the playing of "The Star-Spangled Banner" in London on Sunday).

More than half(52 percent) say the protests have no impact on their decision to watch NFL games on NBC, Fox, CBS, ESPN and NFL Network this season.
The third paragraph of the previous story is only one sentence. Here it is.

"Nearly one-third (32 percent) of adults say they're less likely to watch NFL game telecasts because of the Kaepernick-led player protests against racial injustice, according to Rasmussen's telephone/online survey of 1,000 American adults conducted Oct. 2-3."

Forbes Magazine wrote an article on the same date titled Confirmed: NFL Losing Millions Of TV Viewers Because Of National Anthem Protests.  Their article quoted the Sporting News story and linked to it.

The Atlantic Monthly wrote a similar story on October 11, 2016.  It mentions the drop in television ratings, but Colin Kaepernick's name is only mentioned once.  That paragraph mentions twelve other players who have contributed to the sales of N.F.L.-licensed jerseys and television ratings) during the past few years, as of the date of their story.


These are the first seven paragraphs of an October 27, 2016 Sports Illustrated article.  "MMQB" means Monday Morning Quarterback, which is the name of a column about the N.F.L. on their website, written by Peter King.
The NFL has a ratings problem.  Monday Night Football is down 24% from last year at this time, Sunday Night Football is down 19% and Thursday night is down 18%.  We asked readers of The MMQB to share their theories and explanations behind the double-digit losses for prime-time games and the general sense that the league is losing viewers.

These are the first seven paragraphs of a December 13, 2016 Sporting News story.  The link in the seventh paragraph was in their story.
Longtime NFL fan Jon VanDeBogart claims he has not watched one second of NFL action this season.

The former U.S. Marine and police officer is morally offended by 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick's protest of the U.S. flag and national anthem.

VanDeBogart views Kaepernick's protest as anti-police, anti-military and anti-American.  He wants the NFL to pass an NBA-style rule mandating all players stand for the presentation of the flag/anthem.

He wants Kaepernick and other protesting players kicked out of the league — unless they stand for Old Glory and "The Star-Spangled Banner."

"This has left such a bad taste in my mouth," the 46-year-old elementary school teacher told Sporting News.  "I don't know if I can ever forgive them to tell you the truth.  I don't know if I'll get the opportunity to find out.  But it's not looking good.  They may have lost a fan for life."

VanDeBogart is not alone.

Using the hashtag #BoycottNFL, a small-but-vocal group of NFL fans have lodged their own protest against Kaepernick's protest by refusing to watch game telecasts.

These are the first three paragraphs of a January 23, 2017 Forbes Magazine article.  The chart after the second paragraph was included in their article.
Much has been written about the decline in viewership for the NFL this fall.  I wanted to wait until most of the season was over before evaluating the situation in a more analytical way.  It’s easy to jump to conclusions based on a couple of weeks or even half of season of data.  Week-to-week matchups matter a lot for ratings and may not cancel each other out over a few weeks.   In addition, a few special events such as the presidential debates and the unusually compelling World Series overlapped with NFL games.

The table below shows 2016 season average viewership per game compared with the two prior seasons including both the regular season and playoffs through the divisional rounds:

NFL Viewership Per Game (millions) For Regular Season
Season    Viewers
2014        19.2
2015        19.6
2016        17.6

Viewership dropped by about two million per game versus 2015 and about 1.6 million versus 2014.  Playoff numbers are more mixed, showing the effects of the specific matchups.  The playoff numbers show similar declines, at least at the median with 33 million viewers in 2016 falling two million below the 2015 median and four million below the 2014 median.  The top end of the range of playoff viewership is better for 2016, where Dallas' presence in the divisional round boosted the figures (as in 2014).  I don't yet have access to the conference championship numbers, and given the appeal of the Patriots-Steelers matchup, viewership may be strong.  However, given that both championship games turned into blowouts won't help.
The author of this article, Brian Goff, is smart enough to know that the viewership of N.F.L. games can change for many reasons.  These are the last three sentences of his first paragraph.

"It’s easy to jump to conclusions based on a couple of weeks or even half of season of data.  Week-to-week matchups matter a lot for ratings and may not cancel each other out over a few weeks.   In addition, a few special events such as the presidential debates and the unusually compelling World Series overlapped with NFL games."

The next part of Mr. Goff's article shows a similar three-year comparison for the audience of playoff games.  This is the first of his five "results", as shown later in his article.
The NFL lost about a million viewers per game.  Taking into account these other factors makes a sizable dent in the apparent reduction using the raw viewership numbers, but it does not make it vanish altogether.
These are the last two results that he reported in his article.
  • There is a mid-season lull between weeks 7 to 10 where the league loses about 1.5 to 2 million viewers per game.  The World Series fall in this range, but also the combination of team byes along with some loss of early season interest before the push to the playoffs begins helps to explain it.

  • The presidential debates lopped off about 3 million viewers while the World Series reduced viewership by 5 million in 2016 and 4 million in 2015.
I thank Mr. Goff again for his fair and balanced reporting.  Sometimes, finding and reporting a trend requires that more than one year passes before the event that starts the trend, such as Mr. Kaepernick's protest.  That's why Mr. Goff included other factors like presidential debates and the World Series in his analysis, that's why I am including the economic facts of the 2017 football season, and that's why I will continue to write about the economic facts until the protest has ended and the economy of the N.F.L. shows clear signs of improvement as a direct result of the end of the protest.


The 2017 football off-season

These are the first six paragraphs of a March 6, 2017 Sports Business article.  It included a photo, positioned after the third paragraph, of Colin Kaepernick and two other San Francisco players kneeling, which is consistent with the content of the first paragraph.
The NFL will take in roughly $14 billion of revenue this season, over $900 million more than last year.

Increased media payments, a new “Thursday Night Football” package, and the opening of the new U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota all contributed to the increase.

“It continues unabated,” said Marc Ganis, a sports consultant close to the NFL.  “When you get above a certain number, it is really hard to move the needle on revenue growth.”

The figures are based on calculations from the salary cap for the 2017 season, which the league and NFLPA released last week.  The cap is $167 million a team.  With player benefits pegged at $37 million, the total for each of the 32 clubs comes to $204 million, or $6.5 billion in labor costs for 2017.

The league shares most revenue with the players, who get between 46 percent and 48 percent of each year’s take.  That would translate to revenue of between $13.6 billion and $14.2 billion.

Those revenue figures are incomplete, as the league does not share every penny with the players, shielding hundreds of millions of dollars in areas such as stadium finance.  So the total revenue for the league is almost surely to top the $14 billion mark this year.
This story was linked by this NBC Sports story dated the same day.


These are the first four paragraphs of a April 26, 2017 New York Times story.  The link in the first paragraph and the tweet after the first paragraph were in their story.
The “Worldwide Leader in Sports,” as ESPN brands itself, laid off scores of journalists and on-air talent on Wednesday, showing that even the most formidable media kingdom was vulnerable to the transformation upending the sports broadcasting industry as more and more people turn away from cable television.

Among the prominent people let go were the former N.F.L. players Trent Dilfer and Danny Kanell, the former N.B.A. player Len Elmore, the former baseball general manager Jim Bowden and the longtime N.F.L. reporter Ed Werder.

ESPN is by far the biggest and most powerful entity in the sports media industry, and it has felt the sting as viewers turn away from traditional ways of consuming live sports.

The network has lost more than 10 million subscribers over the past several years. At the same time, the cost of broadcasting major sports has continued to rise. ESPN committed to an eight-year, $15.2 billion deal extension with the N.F.L. in 2011; a nine-year, $12 billion deal with the N.B.A.; and a $7.3 billion deal for the college football playoffs, among many others.
Similar articles were published by these organizations.  These stories are arranged in chronological order, oldest first.
If E.S.P.N. (and other networks) are getting fewer viewers, then those networks will have less revenue from their advertisers.


These are the first six paragraphs of a July 27, 2017 E.S.P.N. article.  It included a photo, positioned after the third paragraph, of Colin Kaepernick and two other San Francisco players kneeling, which is consistent with the content of the first paragraph.
National anthem protests were the top reason that NFL fans watched fewer games last season, according to a new survey released by J.D. Power.

The pollster said it asked more than 9,200 people who attended either one football, basketball or hockey game whether they tuned into fewer games and why. Twenty-six percent of those who watched fewer games last season said that national anthem protests, some of which were led by Colin Kaepernick, were the reason.

After that, 24 percent of those surveyed who said they watched fewer games said they did so either because of the league's off-the-field image issues with domestic violence or with game delays, including penalties.

One in five (20 percent) listed excessive commercials and advertising as a reason, something the NFL is seeking to address by moving around traditional ad blocks.

Sixteen percent said it was because of their interest being replaced by the 2016 presidential election coverage.

Five percent said they watched fewer games because they got rid of cable.
The polling that is mentioned in the second paragraph was done during July.  This is significant because much of the political actions that are done in the United States during the fall, winter, and spring are absent during the summer.  This allows Americans to focus on what's important to them, including their families and their patriotism.


The 2017 football season

Link to a September 8, 2017 Deadline Hollywood article titled "NFL Kickoff Scores 21.8M Viewers, Down Double-Digits From 2016".

These are the first two paragraphs of a September 10, 2017 Sports Illustrated article.  It included .
The start of the NFL season is normally a pretty big deal across the country. Apparently Los Angeles and San Francisco didn't get the memo.

The Rams and 49ers each opened their season at home Sunday, and both teams had to start their games with lots of empty seats in the stadium.

The following Associated Press photo and caption were included in this September 17, 2017 Washington Post story with this headline: "Redskins fans made their presence felt at half-full Los Angeles Coliseum"
There was lots of burgundy and gold in the stands Sunday. (Jae C. Hong/Associated Press)

... because there weren't as many fans in the seats as there used to be.  Guess why.

These are the first six paragraphs of a September 19, 2017 Washington Examiner story.  The links in these paragraphs were in their story.  In the first paragraph, the word "supremacist" was spelled correctly once and misspelled once.  I don't correct anyone else's misspelled words.
ESPN host Jemele Hill is back on the air after calling President Trump a "white supremacist" who has surrounded himself with "other white supremicists" — remarks that earned her a reprimand, but not a suspension, from the network.

The Twitter-taunting and subsequent fallout comes as the sports network's ratings have taken a significant hit over the last year, starting with players' social justice protests at pre-game festivities.

Both the TV networks and the NFL are paying the penalty.

As of July 2017, ESPN's ratings already dropped 9 percent compared to the same time period last year.  Add that to an already bruising 2016 — in November 2016 alone, more than 600,000 subscribers dropped the network.

Viewership for the entire NFL is down 14 percent this year, according to Pivotal Research.  It represents an eight-year low.  Last year, ratings fell 9 percent.

Advertising spending is also down. The NFL is experiencing the worst advanced ad sales in a decade.  Not since the recession started in 2008 have revenues been this dismal.
"Not since the recession started in 2008 have revenues been this dismal."

This September 20, 2017 Fortune Magazine article discusses television and the low ratings for N.F.L. games but not the player protests.


These are the first four paragraphs of a September 20, 2017 New York Post story.  The link in the fourth paragraph was in the article.
As the NFL kicks off Week 3 with “Thursday Night Football,” team owners, TV networks and Madison Avenue are hoping it can turn around an early-season ratings dip.

Ratings in Weeks 1 and 2 were down 12 and 15 percent, respectively, according to Nielsen.

To be sure, saturation TV coverage of Hurricane Irma sapped some eyeballs from football during the first week of play.

Still, nine of the 13 NFL windows in the season-to-date posted viewership declines, Sports Media Watch reported.

The website called Sports Media Watch, linked in the last quoted paragraph of the previous story, has statistics on ratings and viewership in these six major categories, but there is no analysis of these numbers.
  • the National Football League
  • college football
  • Major League Baseball
  • auto racing, which is further broken down into
  • a category that includes tennis, college basketball, golf, boxing, mixed martial arts, horse racing, the Women's National Basketball Association, and the Olympics
  • a page that shows the ratings for individual networks' sports programming
Links to similar stories, arranged in chronological order, oldest first:

Hollywood Reporter, September 20, 2017 Business Insider, September 20, 2017
Breitbart, September 21, 2017 Chicago Tribune, September 21, 2017
Business Insider, September 22, 2017 Bloomberg, September 24, 2017
New York Times, September 25, 2017 C.B.S. News, September 25, 2017
U.S.A. Today, September 26, 2017 The Epoch Times, September 30, 2017
Note: The Epoch Times is usually printed in Chinese.  This is their page of English-language news about China.

The headline of the September 24th Bloomberg story and the September 25th C.B.S. News story mentioned Donald Trump.  As stated in my October 11, 2017 essay, any news organization that frames this issue as a dispute between the President and the N.F.L. players is ignoring the anger of the fans over the politicization of the game and the disrespect of our country's flag and national anthem.

This video was uploaded on September 26, 2017 by PennLive.com.

NFL players demand that team owners share the profits with them, but none of those same players are willing to share their own profits with the stores that sell the jerseys that have their own names on them.

Any company that has a license from the N.F.L. to manufacture any merchandise with the N.F.L. logo on it has.paid a fee to the N.F.L. in exchange for the right to manufacture that merchandise.

These are the first five paragraphs of a related September 29, 2017 story on the website of the Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania affiliate of Fox News television.
EAST LAMPETER TOWNSHIP, LANCASTER COUNTY, Pa. -- After most of the Pittsburgh Steelers players opted to stay off the field during the national anthem before Sunday's game, one Lancaster County business is struggling to sell the team's memorabilia.

Steel City Sports in East Lampeter Township bleeds black and yellow and everything Pittsburgh.  It's a top spot for fans looking for sports memorabilia in Lancaster County.

"People come in here for their slice of hometown Pittsburgh," said owner, Susan Moedinger.

Business is hurting, though.  Moedinger says profits are down 60 percent compared to this time last year, and she blames the recent decision by Steelers' football players not to participate in the national anthem Sunday at Chicago.

"Monday morning, we began to get calls and people stopping in to say they will never shop in my store again because they were boycotting the Steelers, the NFL," she said.  "I'd say potentially they're hurting Steel City Sports, me and my family.  It's a small business, veteran owned."
This is the second sentence of the fourth paragraph.

"[Store owner Susan] Moedinger says profits are down 60 percent compared to this time last year, and she blames the recent decision by Steelers' football players not to participate in the national anthem Sunday at Chicago."


These are the first four paragraphs of an October 8, 2017 Town Hall story.
The protests sparked by former National Football League quarterback Colin Kaepernick that caused league wide kneeling during the national anthem this past month has led to the decline in popularity of the NFL.

At one point, the NFL was America’s favorite sport, but now a recent poll shows it is the least liked sport of any top professional or college sport.

According to a poll conducted by the Winston Group, the NFL currently has a 44 percent favorability rating compared to a 40 percent unfavorable rating.

The most liked sport is baseball. Major League Baseball has a 63 percent favorability rating compared to a 16 percent unfavorable.

These are the first four paragraphs of an October 12, 2017 C.N.B.C. story.  The link in the first paragraph was in their article.
Declining football game television ratings will cut into Twenty-First Century Fox's earnings, according to one Wall Street firm.

Credit Suisse lowered its price target and earnings per share forecasts for the media company, citing Fox's poor Sunday NFL ratings.

"We trim our 2018/19 EPS forecasts … ahead of Q1 earnings," analyst Omar Sheikh wrote in a note to clients Thursday.  "The key near term headwinds are soft NFL ratings and the risk that the Sky transaction is blocked by UK regulators."

Fox is seeking to acquire the 61 percent of European pay-TV company Sky it does not already own.

These are the first three paragraphs of an October 15, 2017 Sporting News story.
No wonder alarm bells are sounding in NFL commissioner Roger Goodell’s office.

The league's average TV audience through Week 5 of the 2017 season dropped 7 percent vs. the same period of the 2016 season, according to Nielsen data obtained by Sporting News.  Worse for the league, the average game audiences are down 18 percent compared to the first five weeks of the 2015 season.

The NFL's average TV audience (including Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, Monday night and Thursday night games) slid to 15.156 million viewers through Week 5 of the 2017 season.  That’s down 7.42 percent from an average of 16.371 million viewers through the same period of the 2016 season, and 18 percent down from the average of 18.438 million viewers through the first five weeks of the 2015 season.

These are the first four paragraphs of an October 18, 2017 Sporting News story.  The links in these paragraphs were in their story.
Television viewership of NFL games is down significantly this season, and the trend is affecting the outlook on media companies’ stocks.

According to Nielsen data cited by ESPN.com, an average of 15 million people have watched NFL games this season, down about 7.5 percent from the 16.2 million average through Week 6 last year.

Reporting slightly different numbers, the New York Post writes that through Week 6, the NFL “continued to close the deficit of TV viewers compared with last season — albeit at a numbingly slow pace.”  Viewership of NFL games was down 12.3 percent after Week 1.
Citing the potential impact of decreasing ratings on advertising revenues, investment bank Credit Suisse lowered its projections on Fox and CBS stocks within the last week.

These are the first two paragraphs of an October 23, 2017 Forbes article.
Last year the NFL lost about a million regular season viewers versus the 2013 and 2014 seasons.  It represented about a 6 percent fall-off --enough to be easily noticed and maybe even cause a little concern, but it could be written off as a one-year blip.  I wrote about it in The NFL's Missing Million Viewers.

Last year's seepage from the dam has turned into a major break in the dam.  The league is now down about 3 million viewers per game from 2013 and 2014.  When the specific teams appearing, the scope of the telecast, and week of the season are taken into account, the decline is even more dramatic with more than 4 million viewers or in excess of 20 percent.

These are the first four paragraphs of a October 27, 2017 Fox News story about a Fox News poll.  The graphic and the link after the second paragraph was in their story.
The National Football League is taking some hits these days.   A new Fox News Poll finds that since 2013, the league’s favorable rating has dropped 18 points.

Today, 46 percent of voters have a positive view of the N.F.L. while 41 percent view it negatively.   Four years ago (the last time the question was asked), 64 percent had a positive view of the league and 19 percent were critical.

nflpoll1

READ THE FULL POLL RESULTS.

“If the NFL were a political candidate, alarm bells would be going off in campaign headquarters,” says Democratic Pollster Chris Anderson who conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican Pollster Daron Shaw.

"Today, 46 percent of voters have a positive view of the N.F.L. while 41 percent view it negatively."
This is the first sentence in the second paragraph.

"Today, 46 percent of voters have a positive view of the N.F.L. while 41 percent view it negatively."

Link to a similar story, published the same day, by The Sporting News.

Disapproval of the players by the fans always leads to reduced numbers of television viewers.  These are the first four paragraphs of a October 27, 2017 Sporting News story.  The link after the second paragraph and the link in the fourth paragraph were in their story.
The NFL's once-golden network TV numbers continue to drop.

NFL games averaged 15.1 million viewers through Week 7, according to Nielsen data obtained by Sporting News. That's down 5.1 percent from 15.87 million viewers during the same period last season and off 18.7 percent from 18.35 million viewers during the same period in 2015.

MORE: Sources say more ESPN layoffs coming

Viewership numbers are lagging for a variety of reasons, not least the ongoing protests during the national anthem that former 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick began in 2016. Fans are still angry about Kaepernick’s continued unemployment as well as what's seen as the growing politicization of the NFL.

In addition, President Donald Trump continues to attack the league for not forcing all players to stand during the anthem. Commissioner Roger Goodell and player reps met last week to seek a way forward, but there wasn’t much progress, and players continue to protest.
As long as N.F.L. players continue to protest, without any punishment by the team owners or by the N.F.L. Commissioner, the fans will continue to stay away from live games and televised games.

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